SO what are the worst things that could happen to Iraq following recent conflict. here is a list of the 5 worst case scenarios.
1)The central government falls as the capital explodes in a sectarian bloodbath
Baghdad is a patchwork of sectarian and mixed neighborhoods, and weapons proliferate. Shiite militias — some supported by Iran — are already arming and organizing in places including Sadr City, the vast Shiite slum on the outskirts of Baghdad.
There were reports on Tuesday that four Sunni men had been shot to death in a Shiite area of the capital, bringing back grim memories and raising the specter of sectarian war.
Whether more moderate Sunnis, who have long felt persecuted by the Shiite government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, will join the radical fighters of ISIS is one development to keep an eye on.
1)The central government falls as the capital explodes in a sectarian bloodbath
Baghdad is a patchwork of sectarian and mixed neighborhoods, and weapons proliferate. Shiite militias — some supported by Iran — are already arming and organizing in places including Sadr City, the vast Shiite slum on the outskirts of Baghdad.
There were reports on Tuesday that four Sunni men had been shot to death in a Shiite area of the capital, bringing back grim memories and raising the specter of sectarian war.
Whether more moderate Sunnis, who have long felt persecuted by the Shiite government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, will join the radical fighters of ISIS is one development to keep an eye on.
2)Terrorists secure a foothold in the heart of the Middle East
The militants from the group known as ISIS or ISIL have have already taken several cities, including Mosul, Tikrit, Fallouja and Tal Afar, consolidating control over large swaths of territory in western and northern parts of the country.
They may not be able to hold the entire country, but the militants have already established a de facto Sunni Islamic caliphate in the territories they have captured, enforcing Sharia law and threatening public executions and other brutal reprisals.
The solidification of an extremist enclave brings to mind Taliban rule in Afghanistan before 9/11 and could be a significant strategic and security defeat for the U.S. as such a extremist sanctuary could provide training grounds for international terrorists.
The militants from the group known as ISIS or ISIL have have already taken several cities, including Mosul, Tikrit, Fallouja and Tal Afar, consolidating control over large swaths of territory in western and northern parts of the country.
They may not be able to hold the entire country, but the militants have already established a de facto Sunni Islamic caliphate in the territories they have captured, enforcing Sharia law and threatening public executions and other brutal reprisals.
The solidification of an extremist enclave brings to mind Taliban rule in Afghanistan before 9/11 and could be a significant strategic and security defeat for the U.S. as such a extremist sanctuary could provide training grounds for international terrorists.
3)The end of Iraq
Kurdish Peshmerga forces and Iraqi special forces deploy their troops outside of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, Iraq on June 12, 2014.
Iraqi and American officials have long disavowed the disintegration of the country. But if Baghdad falls, or becomes a battlefield between the sects, the country could split into three (mutually hostile) regions with the Kurds seceding in the north; the Shiites retrenching in the south and the Sunnis consolidating their hold on the west.
That could further destabilize the region and send people fleeing for neighboring countries. If Iraq falls apart, oil production could be affected and prices could rise dramatically with possibly severe negative consequences for the U.S. economy.
Kurdish Peshmerga forces and Iraqi special forces deploy their troops outside of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, Iraq on June 12, 2014.
Iraqi and American officials have long disavowed the disintegration of the country. But if Baghdad falls, or becomes a battlefield between the sects, the country could split into three (mutually hostile) regions with the Kurds seceding in the north; the Shiites retrenching in the south and the Sunnis consolidating their hold on the west.
That could further destabilize the region and send people fleeing for neighboring countries. If Iraq falls apart, oil production could be affected and prices could rise dramatically with possibly severe negative consequences for the U.S. economy.
4)The worst refugee crisis since World War II
Iraqis who have fled the violence in their hometown of Mosul line arrive at Khazir refugee camp outside of Irbil, 217 miles north of Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2014
The United Nations estimates that at least half a million Iraqis have already fled Mosul and an additional 430,000 have been displaced by fighting in the Western province of Anbar. Further fighting could spur the exodus of millions more, adding to the Syrian refugee crisis next door, which has already pushed neighboring countries including Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to the brink.
Iraqis who have fled the violence in their hometown of Mosul line arrive at Khazir refugee camp outside of Irbil, 217 miles north of Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2014
The United Nations estimates that at least half a million Iraqis have already fled Mosul and an additional 430,000 have been displaced by fighting in the Western province of Anbar. Further fighting could spur the exodus of millions more, adding to the Syrian refugee crisis next door, which has already pushed neighboring countries including Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to the brink.
5)Religious war engulfs the region
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Jordan enter the conflict on different sides. While these countries already operate proxies in Iraq, more direct involvement could transform this into a catastrophic region-wide war between Sunnis and Shiites that would reverberate beyond the Middle East.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Jordan enter the conflict on different sides. While these countries already operate proxies in Iraq, more direct involvement could transform this into a catastrophic region-wide war between Sunnis and Shiites that would reverberate beyond the Middle East.
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